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The Future of S&P Downgrades: FYI, CYA or LOL?

I can’t resist this.

In the last few days, S&P downgraded the pristine credit rating of two leading mutuals, two fraternals, one stock company and a country. What is next? Will planet Earth become a mere AA+, as well?

I understand their position. They cannot look past the obvious facts about gross debt, unemployment and spending patterns of the U.S., and not do something. But the question is, is it an economic issue or a political one? In many ways, it doesn’t matter. Ratings are only valuable as relative to something else. And now they are all arguing about whether or not that data is correct.

Data, schmata.

Let them argue their butts off. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the future of the rating system is going to work very differently. There will no longer be a few experts who tell the world what your grade is. The transparency and access to information will allow the world to tell you.

Yes. I am talking about the wisdom of the crowd. Corporate executives everywhere are secretly shaking in their boots about Gen Y and how to deal with them, while on the outside, they are saying things like “they don’t have any money” or “they don’t have any power” … yet. 

Gen Y, as it is defined now (basically anyone about 31 or younger), is the largest generation—even bigger than the boomers. So the world must look at them as the leaders of the future, not the ones we need to change to conform to our ways of being.

Moms and dads, grandmas and grandpas, stop screaming over the fact that Gen Y is “risking their futures” by putting them out on Facebook. You can’t stop this. This is the way they roll. The world is going to work on a social currency that only gets fed by the data that people provide on a constant basis. So if you’re hiding stuff, people will be suspicious of you. If you tell the truth, even if it is a little embarrassing, people will at least know they have accurate data and will trust what you say in the future. Would you trust a twentysomething who tried to make you believe they never got crazy at a party? C’mon. The new access to information levels the playing field.

So how does that relate to S&P, you ask? Well, rating agencies do the job of assimilating facts and figures and come up with conclusions based on some algorithm that puts an entity in a range or a grading scale regarding their ability to pay back debt, support claims, etc. In many ways, these ratings create a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the experts agree that someone is worthy or not, the world generally follows. However, in the current/future world of open information, the rating agency of public opinion becomes the truth. So if the consumers at large have enough information that they can form an opinion about a person, a company or even a country, those numbers will ultimately speak louder than any single authority figure ever can, and the rating agency, as we know it, becomes a thing of the past.

Where is this already being done? How about “likes” on Facebook. Seller ratings on eBay. Views on YouTube. Sure, you can say that the financial stability of companies is a complicated matter that not everyone can understand, but just wait. If Gen Y sees the political and economic “experts” as a bunch of noisemakers, they will be LMAOing to their friends and asking what they think instead.

How do you spell Pterodactyl?

Maria Umbach, M.B.A., CLU, is managing principal, insurance and financial services, for Maddock Douglas in Norwalk, Conn. She specializes in helping large brands innovate new products, services and business models. Maria has spent more than 25 years as a marketing executive in the life insurance space and is now focused on “what’s next” for the industry. She is a frequent speaker and the author of the upcoming book series “Flirting with the Uninterested: Innovation in a 'Sold, Not Bought' Category.” For more, visit her blog at www.soldnotbought.com, or email her at maria.u@maddockdouglas.com.

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Discussion:    Add a Comment | Comments 1-4 of 4 | Latest Comment

August 10, 2011 4:50 PM

The global MILITARY power must be CONVERTED soon to be a global ECONOMIC power. Please take a brave action Mr. Obama, please remember what we have both learned in the law school: "Nullum delictum noella poena, Sine parevia lege poenali". Dear Mr. Obama, it is the time to play the Weapon's-rule (He who has the weapon, has the gold) and the Golden-rule (He who has the gold, own the rule).

It is just a time for us to understand the whole economic better. Have your team read the Keynes' General Theory? It just three separate discussion on Interest, Employment and Money. But now we must brutally frank to see its reality: Please print any paper and make it USD bank notes by the back-up of its strong military. No other permission needed from any body.

The Federal Reserve Bank is totally a lie: 1)It is not own by Federal, 2)It does not have ample reserve and 3)It is not really a bank. Whether we like it or not, the Macro-Micro Economics will works in FIELD MARSHALL MODEL of State's Money Supply, Market Price, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Fiscal and Monetary:

S= PQ = (X-M)+(L-R)(1+i)^N1= (G-T)+(F-B)(1+j)^N2

at S= Supply og money, P= Price of Commodity matrix, Q= Quantity of Commodity matrix, X= Export matrix, M= Import matrix, L= Loan from foreign sources matrix, R= Repayment of foreign loan matrix, i= Interest of foreign loan, N1= number of foreign loan period, G= Government expenditures, T= Taxes, F= Financial notes bought by authority, B= Bank central's certificate bought by the market, j= Interest of net local monetary instruments and N2= Number of monetary instrument period.

Please also remember what our 16th president Mr. Link-Colon said on Getting-Bruise's Address: "Form the people, Buy the people and Fort the people!"

Now, let us sing "The Battle Hymn of Democrats" altogether!

August 11, 2011 9:17 AM

Very true post!

Being just a couple years older than 31, but of course feeling/acting like 31 or younger, I agree that Gen Y is the future and companies need to embrace "social currency" and word of mouth and "likes" on FB etc as more viable than a polling center or whatever the experts in the ivory towers are concluding about the issue of the day.

Being downgraded on S&P is very scary, though, but the reasons for the downgrade all make sense. China has bought so much of the U.S dollar/our debt at this point that we are practically owned by China as well as indebted to China since we are reliant on their imports.

in London, the young, frustrated nihilistic youth are rioting. In Israel 250,000 Israelis are protesting against their president. These protests are coming from Gen Y.

Here in the U.S. we have business as usual. The gap between the haves and the have-nots continues to widen. i posted the following tweet the other day and it was "re-tweeted" by a couple people, both Gen Y'ers. one of the persons who re-tweeted it lost his job at a mfg plant and is now in school and working two part-time jobs and i do not know the other guy.

"wonders what the % of Americans who don't give a sh*t about the market crashing b/c they're already as poor as f*ck index is. Beuller?"

August 12, 2011 8:17 AM

Your last line cracked me up. All *'s aside, that index is probably worth knowing.

Thanks as always for your thoughtful comments.

August 12, 2011 10:24 AM

Lol, you are right- I was sort of half-kidding in that part, and who in America doesn't as least want to be or give the illusion of being on the side of the haves vs. the have nots? Maybe this is why we do care about our country's collective credit rating and why it's worth knowing about, since we are all in it together...

....Yet, like a lot of personal financial irresponsibility out there, some people feel similarly about our country's financial health and are ignorant to how our country is doing and our International scorecard, which is kind of important considering population wise we are a very small part of the world, one nation among many. How we stack up and where we rank is pretty key if it can impact or influence the desire for other nations to do business with us.

This Vancouver Sun column by Fiona Anderson, link below, does a great job talking about what the downgrade from three A's to two A's means, and referencing NYT piece on the matter, with a nice unrelated bit about chocolate at the end. She included this quote excerpt that I had noticed in the printed edition of the NYT Sunday edition this past week and had coincidentally made a mental note to come back to this blog and add as a comment:

"It's like you are going from a Rolls-Royce to a Mercedes -- not from a Rolls-Royce to a Yugo," Chris Orndorff, a senior portfolio manager for the bond giant Western Asset Management is quoted as saying. "That's nothing to be ashamed of."

http://communities.canada.com/vancouversun/blogs/businesseditor/archive/2011/...

Discussion:    Add a Comment | Comments 1-4 of 4 | Latest Comment

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